Read e-book online Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability PDF

By Roger M. Cooke

This booklet is an intensive survey and important exam of the literature at the use of professional opinion in medical inquiry and coverage making. The elicitation, illustration, and use of professional opinion is more and more vital for 2 purposes: advancing know-how results in progressively more complicated choice difficulties, and technologists are delivering larger numbers to "expert platforms" and different related artifacts of man-made intelligence. Cooke right here considers how specialist opinion is getting used this present day, how an expert's uncertainty is or could be represented, how humans do or may still cause with uncertainty, how the standard and usability of specialist opinion might be assessed, and the way the perspectives of a number of specialists will be mixed. He argues for the significance of constructing functional types with a clear mathematic beginning for using professional opinion in technology, and provides 3 verified versions, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." specified case reviews illustrate how they are often utilized to a range of actual difficulties in engineering and planning.

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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series) by Roger M. Cooke

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